After Ohio Legalizes, How Many Americans 21 and Over Have Access to Legal Cannabis?

Congratulations to Ohio for joining the right side of history. There are a lot of stats being thrown around regarding what percentage of Americans now have access to legal cannabis. I took a look at some basic data from the US Census to arrive at some estimates of my own.

Raw Numbers

Question: After yesterday’s Ohio win, How many adults aged 21 and over in the US live in a state where cannabis is legalized for recreational purposes?
Answer: 132M adults 21+

Question: How many adults aged 21 and over live in the US in total?
Answer: 246.8M adults 21+

So this means 53.5% of adults 21+ now live a state where cannabis is legalized for recreational purposes. The “Just over half” statements check out…initially.

Enter Nuance

Look what happens if we change the definition to those adults 21+ who actually have access via a regulated commercial market. To do this you have to pull out Ohio and Virginia as neither groups of adults 21+ actually have access. We also have to give many other states a haircut as these states allow cities and counties to prohibit cannabis businesses, like retail. We limited CA, NY and NJ by the percentage of population where retail is open by county and NJ by municipality. So that meant reducing CA by 63%, NY by 33% and NJ by 60%.
When we take into account this nuance we’re left with:

Question: After yesterday’s Ohio win, how many adults aged 21 and over in the US have access to legal adult-use recreational cannabis?
Answer: 89.6M adults 21+

So this means 36.3% of adults 21+ now live a state where they have access to legal adult-use recreational cannabis. The “Just over half” statements start to crumble.

I’m going to keep running scenarios with this dataset and other population datasets to see what other interesting insights emerge.

Buyer’s Club 2 in Hudson, NY

Buyer's Club by On The Revel in Hudson, NY last week was so good. I wish I had more clever words but that's it. The feeling I've had so many times over the past 5 years of "I can't wait until events like this happen in New York" came full circle. The only thing I have to wait for now is the next one.

With so much negative noise right now in cannabis (especially New York) my biggest take away from this event is that we have a strong group here in New York that is going to make this market happen. I am meeting people in the New York market I admire almost every week at this point.

Very important work that Lulu Tsui and Jacobi Holland are doing here in New York for years now. Really exciting to see how their platform is developing as we enter the next phase of our market.

Let's open some doors and then blow them off.

Confusing the Customer in New York

A legal adult use cannabis market is not possible in New York if the illicit retailers can operate in plain sight and confuse the consumer without consequences. Identifying over 1,300 shops suspected of selling cannabis illegally is a clear warning signal to the regulators and law enforcement that if this is not addressed, the legal market will not have a chance to grow to a size that could convince some of these operators to leave the illicit market and join the legal market.

This is important work and another example of an East Coast market with a "clear as day" lesson to learn from cannabis markets out west.

While we strongly believe this issue needs to be addressed, we don't see the upside in punishing those who are operating a non-compliant retail location. A simple order and warning mechanism to cease operations for the time being. We need more legal retail locations before any strong action is warranted. We need to solve the product availability and consumer confusion problem first.