After Ohio Legalizes, How Many Americans 21 and Over Have Access to Legal Cannabis?

Congratulations to Ohio for joining the right side of history. There are a lot of stats being thrown around regarding what percentage of Americans now have access to legal cannabis. I took a look at some basic data from the US Census to arrive at some estimates of my own.

Raw Numbers

Question: After yesterday’s Ohio win, How many adults aged 21 and over in the US live in a state where cannabis is legalized for recreational purposes?
Answer: 132M adults 21+

Question: How many adults aged 21 and over live in the US in total?
Answer: 246.8M adults 21+

So this means 53.5% of adults 21+ now live a state where cannabis is legalized for recreational purposes. The “Just over half” statements check out…initially.

Enter Nuance

Look what happens if we change the definition to those adults 21+ who actually have access via a regulated commercial market. To do this you have to pull out Ohio and Virginia as neither groups of adults 21+ actually have access. We also have to give many other states a haircut as these states allow cities and counties to prohibit cannabis businesses, like retail. We limited CA, NY and NJ by the percentage of population where retail is open by county and NJ by municipality. So that meant reducing CA by 63%, NY by 33% and NJ by 60%.
When we take into account this nuance we’re left with:

Question: After yesterday’s Ohio win, how many adults aged 21 and over in the US have access to legal adult-use recreational cannabis?
Answer: 89.6M adults 21+

So this means 36.3% of adults 21+ now live a state where they have access to legal adult-use recreational cannabis. The “Just over half” statements start to crumble.

I’m going to keep running scenarios with this dataset and other population datasets to see what other interesting insights emerge.

Why Are We Asking Consumers to Memorize Chemical Compounds?

"Look at those terps!"
"Check out those terpene levels"
"This strain has a lot of terps"

I've been in the cannabis industry for years now and I'm getting a little impatient with "Terpenes are the future of how consumers will buy cannabis" theory. I'm constantly hearing how "good" a cannabis product is based on the same vague references to terpenes that are listed in the beginning of this post.

My opinion is that consumers are going to buy based off quality ingredients, consistency, and brand value transparency...not chemical compounds. The "connoisseurs" or "ganjiers", maybe. Maybe.

I want to believe that terpenes will play a big role in cannabis product selection because I'm becoming a bit of a nerd learning cannabis science, especially as it relates to pharmacological use cases. But I am still struggling envisioning the day that I or someone else walks into a dispensary or visits an online store looking for the "linalool" section. We don't have to create our own lexicon and confuse consumers. Lavender, gas, citrus, pine, pepper, etc. These are all words consumers use that they understand. Why are we making this more difficult than it has to be? Why are we asking consumers to memorize chemical compounds?

Trustworthy Advisors for Early Stage Cannabis Companies

Our advisory practice is focused on early stage companies. Our collective experiences punch above their weight class for this group of companies. We offer our services to a wide range of industry sectors from cultivation to software companies and everything in between.

We like to work with companies who value our time just as much as we value theirs. After spending a combined 15 years in the cannabis industry, here are a few things that make us different.

1. You can trust us.

2. We’re effective, respectful communicators.

3. We’re results-driven strategic thinkers.

4. We’re professionals. We don’t put up with nonsense.

5. We care about facts backed by data.

Please contact us at the link the comments section if you'd like to discuss working with us.

Real Ones Only.

No Nonsense.

A Multi-Dimensional Regional Cannabis Market Landscape on the East Coast

Cannabis is personal. Each person experiences cannabis differently just as we experience our lives differently. Cannabis communities form as consumers seek those who have similar or desirable experiences with the plant.

For that reason, we envision a multi-dimensional regional market landscape on the east coast within the next 5 years. These regional and hyper-regional markets will be driven by consumer demands for products that fit their way of life and deliver the value they seek. Brands who are able to align their value they deliver with consumers’ desires at this regional level will establish a foothold in their respective region.

Here are some examples:
- Top Level Regions: NORTHEAST / SOUTHEAST
- Sub Regions: NEW ENGLAND, MID ATLANTIC, CAROLINAS, GEORGIA and FLORIDA
- DMAs: NYC, PHILLY, BOSTON, DC, ATLANTA, MIAMI

Which brands currently have a head start in these regions, sub-regions and DMAs?

The “I’m High Right Now” Campaign Is Smart

Why do we think the “I’m High Right Now” campaign is so smart? Attacking both institutional and individual cannabis stigmas head on in one campaign.

The Cannabis Media Council’s first move should get your attention merely from the fact that they convinced a powerhouse traditional publisher like Hearst to partner on this messaging. Instead of simply taking the money and running the campaign. Partnering and being part of the trade announcements shows that an institution like Hearst is ready to step out of the institutional cannabis stigma that has hindered the industry and our broader cultural norms for decades. Publishers of all sizes are watching this move as they endlessly consider the question “when should we get into cannabis?” (The answer is “5 years ago” by the way.)

Individual cannabis stigma still exists today but it’s shrinking. We often see pitches from entrepreneurs who are looking to “break the stigma” and their target audience is young people. News flash, most young people don’t have a stigma towards cannabis. They are growing up watching the legalization movement, choosing it over alcohol and are well informed on health and wellness products. You know who isn’t over the cannabis stigma? Grandma and Grandpa. And they might have the most to gain from cannabis when you take into account the probability of finding a cannabis-based product that helps with pain, sleep, loss of appetite and the list goes on.

And as a bonus for the entire cannabis industry, the Cannabis Media Council just ran a campaign for us all to gain the attention of the age group with the most buying power in history. “We want it to be category-growing kind of work and a tide that lifts all boats on a national level.” Just saying… mission accomplished in our view.

We’re thrilled to see this effort get the attention it deserves and we look forward to future campaigns from Cannabis Media Council. We’re also fortunate to call Cannabis Media Council founding board member Annie Davis an Advisor to Receptive Capital.

Miss Grass Homecoming in New Jersey

Lots of attention on NY and well-deserved. However there is a very exciting story happening in NJ. Miss Grass, a female-founded, female-led brand, originally launched in CA, is taking the state by storm in homecoming fashion for Kate.

After watching the brand from inception in 2018 as a media + marketplace product focused on consumer education, it was a pleasure to walk into a dispensary on the east coast and purchase some Miss Grass pre-rolls. This is a brand anchored in consumer education on display. Thoughtful, unique design and messaging (recently refreshed). Visually appealing and inviting. The box of matches is a fitting touch. The promise of enhancing your experience or “times” is certainly delivered. NJ being the 5th state the brand has entered successfully, we feel confident saying that while most cannabis brands are talking about it, Miss Grass is actually doing it.

Cheers to the Miss Grass team for actually doing it.

FWIW, the Ascend store in Fort Lee has a pretty thoughtful floor design for consumer education purposes with many approachable displays. I knew exactly what I wanted because I went there specifically to get Miss Grass pre-rolls so I pre-ordered and the pick up process was as simple as it should be. First time using Dispense as well. Sign up was easy. Elegant and clean UX.

Old Pal “Baked At Home” Hits The Mark

This product hits the mark and, in our view, provides validation for the "cannabis will be everywhere" element of our thesis. The cannabis plant is so dynamic and we have decades of product innovation ahead of us. That is what makes the consumer side of this business so attractive to us as investors.

Some people may see this as a "clever product". We see this is as a company who knows their customer base and provides straight forward solutions to their needs in the form of a product. Making your own edibles seems daunting. This product makes it possible.

Cheers to Old Pal for keeping it simple and sensible when it comes to new products. Will this be a big category? We don't think it matters. This is a showcase of cannabis product development, branding and marketing maturing in the cannabis industry and we're very excited about it. And we can't wait to try them...